There threatens a Balkanisation  

André Brie observed the vote in Basra - Neues Deutschland, Wednesday, December 21, 2005, p .2.

 

The Iraqi population has now elected a new parliament. Was this vote a step towards a peaceful, independent and united Iraq ?  

The elections are an important step – however, in an environment that is dominated by negative developments. Therefore, I expect, despite all the significance of these elections, no tendency in the direction of a peaceful and democratic Iraq .

 

You observed the election in Basra . Does your statement also hold for the relatively stable South?  

In distinction to central Iraq, where there was electoral fraud and terror far beyond the reported instances, Election Day in the South and in the Kurd part went by relatively calmly. The vote itself was, in the eleven ballot stations that I visited in Basra , very well organised. Yet, all of that cannot delude us to the fact that there as well, the influence of fundamentalist Shiite forces is increasing.

 

The Shiite alliance received the most votes all over the country. To what dangers is linked this constellation?  

This alliance is not fundamentalist throughout. Moreover, I hold it to be legitimate that many Shiites link, to the election, also the hope for a fundamental improvement of their economic and social situation. The fear is, however, that the fundamentalists will increasingly determine the daily life of the people. Women, for instance, are already pushed to a large extent out of public life. The US Americans, nonetheless, wage upon these forces. Not because they are adherents of Islamic fundamentalism, but because they have lost this war and now want to keep at least the control over the oil-rich provinces. If not, they will leave the country to itself and, in this way, straighten the path towards a splitting of the country into three parts, towards its Balkanisation.

 

What role could the Sunnites play in this?  

It is a positive fact that there has been, this time around, a high electoral participation also among the Sunnites. The readiness has grown to participate in the political process of the country. Yet, this, of course, changes nothing to the fact that the Sunnites will be, in the future, the most severely discriminated population group. There are no guarantees in the constitution for their sharing in the riches of the country. And there are strong efforts, both in the North and in the South, to administer the oil wealth autonomously. The Sunnites, therefore, run the danger to be excluded from the developmental process and to be left to themselves and to terror.

 

Are there ways out of this danger?  

It is really hard for me to spread optimism. Surely, there would be needed constitutional changes that would make possible really equal rights and participation. An end to the occupation is also the prerequisite for there being – even if not immediately – chances for positive change. During my travels to all three parts of the country, I have experienced, however, this year that the situation is even much worse than we perceive it in this country. Apart from the terror, there is also normal criminality. On the flight back, a German business man told me: “We shall only have a chance, if we collaborate with heavy criminals and heavily armed types. There are no other partners around.”

 

Questions: Stefan Menschel

Translated by Carla Krüger, December 21, 2005